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Abstract Theory predicts that effective environmental governance requires that the scales of management account for the scales of environmental processes. A good example is community wildfire protection planning. Plan boundaries that are too narrowly defined may miss sources of wildfire risk originating at larger geographic scales whereas boundaries that are too broadly defined dilute resources. Although the concept of scale (mis)matches is widely discussed in literature on risk mitigation as well as environmental governance more generally, rarely has the concept been rigorously quantified. We introduce methods to address this limitation, and we apply our approach to assess scale matching among Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) in the western US. Our approach compares two metrics: (1) the proportion of risk sources encompassed by planning jurisdictions (sensitivity) and (2) the proportion of area in planning jurisdictions in which risk can originate (precision). Using data from 852 CWPPs and a published library of 54 million simulated wildfires, we demonstrate a trade-off between sensitivity and precision. Our analysis reveals that spatial scale match—the product of sensitivity and precision—has an n-shaped relationship with jurisdiction size and is maximal at approximately 500 km². Bayesian multilevel models further suggest that functional scale match—via neighboring, nested, and overlapping planning jurisdictions—may compensate for low sensitivity. This study provides a rare instance of a quantitative framework to measure scale match in environmental planning and has broad implications for risk mitigation as well as in other environmental governance settings. 

Abstract Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways towards mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.